TYLER, Texas — When June rolls around in East Texas, historically, the heat turns on and the severe weather threats decrease.
Will the upcoming month follow suit? We'll use the Long Range Cycling Pattern Theory (LRC) to shed some light on what's in store as summer settles in.
The LRC is a patent pending weather forecast model that uses past storms as a baseline for what lies ahead. For instance, the weather pattern that cycled through East Texas back in November 2022 will return in June with seasonal differences.
Here's an example of seasonal differences.
November cold fronts can bring sharply colder air and our first freeze of the fall. A June cold front will bring only slightly cooler and less humid air. The weather pattern is the same, but the outcome is different.
So let's dive in by looking at severe weather potential in June.
On average, East Texas has about a 3-4% chance of having any type of severe weather in June.
But the upcoming month will feature a slightly higher chance of severe weather based on a late November part of the weather pattern that produced a significant severe weather outbreak across the Deep South.
The jet stream briefly re-energizes as we head toward the middle of the month, around June 12, to bring a late season severe weather threat. Because of seasonal differences, The upper-low won't be as strong, won't be as far south and as a result, the severe weather threat will shift farther north and west, but could include parts of East Texas.
The last week of spring, June 13-20, will see a late season could front push into East Texas. This will happen right around Father's Day. It appears, there may be thunderstorms, which may lead to a much cooler than average day for June, leading up to the holiday. But, it appears Father's Day will be seasonably warm, sunny and dry with a comfortable high of 90 degrees.
In early December 2022 temperatures spiked with a spell of days where highs reached the mid-80s. The end of the fifth cycle and the beginning of the sixth cycle will occur the last week of June. This will feature a return of the warm spell, but because of seasonal differences, we'll see highs climb into the 90s and parts of Texas will see highs around 100 to round out the month.
A stronger heat wave appears to emerge in the middle of July.
You can find out more about the rest of the summer outlook on our CBS19 Weather Special, "The Science of Summer" it airs Friday, June 2nd at 6:30PM. And make sure to check back throughout the month of June as we bring day to day updates to the forecast.
