CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — Hurricane Helene made landfall just after 10pm about 10 miles WSW of Perry, FL as a Category 4 storm with winds of 140 mph.
Unfortunately, this isn't the first hurricane the Big Bend of Florida has weathered this year. On August 5, Hurricane Debby made landfall as a Category 1. The Gulf of Mexico has been very active this hurricane season, and we already have eyes on another system that may impact the Gulf late next week. More on that to follow the latest on Helene.
At 4 AM Friday Helene is now a strong tropical storm still producing 70 mph winds inland and hurricane strength wind gusts.
Helene will weaken as it merges with the upper-level low and wind will become less of a threat over the weekend.
Heavy rainfall and devastating flooding will remain an issue for much of the Appalachian Region and along the Ohio and Mississippi rivers.
Helene was a huge storm - not just its strength, but its literal size. Below is a size comparison of Helene's wind field and the state of Texas. The yellow circle encompasses tropical storm-force winds (39-73 mph) and the red circle encompasses hurricane-force winds (74+ mph).
The severe weather and tornado risk remains well away of the center of the storm. Areas along the Coast of North and South Carolina are under an Enhanced Risk where feeder bands will be able to still tap into the moisture coming off the Atlantic Ocean.
Locally, we'll see tamer, indirect impacts. Even though our wave heights won't be that impressive, it's the longer wave period leading to our increased rip current risk. This will likely last through the weekend, so if you're looking to enjoy the nicer weather at the beach, make sure you're staying vigilant and actively looking for rip currents. Minor Coastal Flooding is also taking place along Gulf facing beaches this morning. High tide at Bob Hall will be overnight after 3 AM through the weekend.
If you get pulled away from shore in a rip current, remember to stay calm and swim parallel to the shore until you aren't being pulled out any more. Swim with a buddy, if you can.
Waves will calm down on Sunday, and we should see improvements on the coastal flooding for the first half of next week. The second half of the week may see another uptick in wave action with another round of possible development in the Gulf of Mexico.
Friday morning the National Hurricane Center tagged the region across the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico with a high chance of development over the next seven days.
Additionally, there is a low with a high chance of development in the Central Atlantic that may become Tropical Storm Joyce later today. A second area of low pressure has a low chance of developing over the next seven days. Both of these systems will likely track northeast with no threat to the Gulf of Mexico, Texas, or the United States.
Forecast model guidance has a wide range of outcomes for the possible low in the Western Caribbean. At this point, a low is likely to form by the middle of next week. Remember once we have a low forecasting becomes a lot easier. The Euro and GFS Ensemble both generally show the low somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.
Once again we will be watching where high pressure sets up. A high over the Southeast could open up more of an opportunity for the Western Gulf of Mexico. It does look like tropical moisture is set to return, but it's too early to tell where exactly a system will go and how strong it will be.
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The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1 to November 30, with the peak of the climatological peak of the season happening on September 10.
Here are the names for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Names are given to tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes).
On May 23, NOAA released their forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. They're predicting an above-average year, with 17-25 named storms. This is the highest pre-season forecast they've ever issued.
The high number of storms forecast is due to near-record sea surface temperatures and the return of La Nina, both of which favor tropical cyclone development. We talk more about those in our Hurricane Special, which you can watch here!
Remember to not "anchor" to the first forecast you see - forecasts change. Also, rely on a credible source for your tropical information and forecasts.
