TYLER, Texas — Fall is off to a much warmer than average start. Temperatures through the first month of the new season are running roughly three degrees above average. And it's only rained once and that was on Sept. 25. We've still got two months to go until winter arrives but already, there are questions about what kind of winter we will have.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently released its winter outlook for the United States. The outlook covers temperatures and precipitation.
A quick glance at the forecast and you can see the Climate Prediction Center's forecast calls for above average temperatures and below average rain or snow. Yes, even though it will likely be warmer than average that doesn't mean there won't be a blast of cold air coupled with some Gulf or Pacific moisture that would produce some snow. Remember earlier in October when temperatures fell below average for a few days? Cold weather like that could return for a few days this winter and again in the spring.
But what about here in East Texas? Remember we use the Long Range Cycling Weather Pattern theory here in the CBS19 Weather Center. That means we use a forecasting method that tracks a new and unique weather pattern. That weather pattern that sets up in October and November every year. This new and unique pattern, one that has never been seen before, begins to cycle or repeat. The key to the winter forecast is identifying the length of the cycle and when signature features will return. So for instance, the chilly air in mid-October will come back.
But when? We will know more when we identify when this key feature of the pattern returns.
It will take until early November to identify this year's pattern and then we will begin to hone in on dates to watch for cold air outbreaks, rain, potential ice and extended dry spells throughout the winter. We'll also be able to pick out key days as we head into spring when severe weather set ups will occur.
La Nina will also be player in this winter's weather in East Texas. La Nina occurs when the ocean waters off the coast of South America are cooler than the waters on the other side of the Pacific Ocean, closer to Indonesia. This small change can disrupt weather patterns all over the world including the United States and even East Texas.
La Nina can result in fewer storm systems moving through the central and southern plains, including East Texas. It might help to explain our dry start to fall and it could lead to deepening drought as go through winter. La Nina and the LRC are just a couple of things to think about as we head through the rest of fall and into winter.
Let us know if you have any questions about the LRC, La Nina and or the upcoming winter. It will be challenging and rewarding watching this year's weather pattern develop and then watching how long range forecasts verify using the repeating weather cycle forecast method.
Thanks for reading the CBS19 Weather Blog and make sure to check back for updates throughout the fall and into the winter.
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