ARLINGTON, Texas — The World Series Champion Texas Rangers are eyeing a defense of their title with a rotation that currently appears to be an arm or two short.
Veterans Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, and Jon Gray are all guaranteed to be with the club next year, barring any trades. Those three do make up a strong trio at the top, though each with question marks given their injury history. In short, you can’t expect all three to make it through the season unscathed. There will be times when Texas is without their top three so depth will be tested.
Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney will also be with the club, so they very well could have a starting five ready to go. Dunning, the team’s Pitcher of the Year, will likely join the rotation again in 2024 but he started the 2023 season in the bullpen as a long relief option and ended the season in the bullpen during the team’s postseason run to glory.
Heaney, meanwhile, was also used down the stretch and into the postseason as a reliever as the team identified that he was best used in short spurts, either as an opening pitcher or a multi-inning reliever.
And then there’s Jacob deGrom, who, best case, could return late in the 2024 season following his second Tommy John shoulder surgery over the summer. At this point, if deGrom contributes at all in 2024, it should be considered a bonus.
So how does Texas fill the gaps? Cody Bradford could certainly help in a spot start capacity, but it doesn’t appear that the franchise is willing to run with him as a more permanent solution in the rotation unless he takes a big step forward in his second big league season.
To that end, general manager Chris Young and company are likely to turn to free agency. Earlier in the Winter, Young stated that the team was unlikely to have the blank check that they enjoyed as they rebuilt through free agency in recent winters. While a serious discussion will likely be had around left-hander Jordan Montgomery after his superlative performance with Texas after being acquired at the trade deadline, and especially given his performance in the playoffs for the club, the Rangersmay look to fill its rotation needs using something of a “Jon Daniels” mentality – shopping for hidden gems at more mid-range prices.
Some of the free agents that signed with the Rangers under Daniels’ tenure could be described as coming from the Island of Misfit Toys. Those pitchers and players that could be heavy candidates for Comeback Player of the Year or ones that had previously promising seasons cut short due to injury. That may be the strategy used by the Rangers to fill out the rotation this winter if the budget is tight.
Here is a look at some of the pitchers who can fit that mold for Texas:
Seth Lugo – 34, RHP
Lugo, the former longtime member of the New York Mets, might not get the payday he’s looking for. Coming off his first full season as a starter, Lugo’s previous high before last season was 18 games started in his second season with the Mets. Last year as a member of the San Diego Padres, Lugo made 26 starts, amassing a 3.57 ERA, an 8-7 record and a respectable 8.6 K/9 and 3.89 K/BB ratio.
Lugo’s camp is banking on just one season of healthy starts with Lugo looking for multiple years and something north of $13 million per season. In a market with a lot of pitchers in that same boat, he may not get that. That could open up a good opportunity for Texas to work with Lugo in the back end of their rotation, working something similar to a role that the team had envisioned for Jake Odorizzi after acquiring the veteran last winter only to see him miss the 2023 season with an injury.
On a team that also could stand to add some stability and structure to the bullpen, the experience of the righty could aid in an eventual transition back to a reliever.
Sean Manaea – 32, LHP
The Throwin’ Samoan exercised the opt-out of his contract with the San Francisco Giants after the season, clearly looking for a multi-year deal. But Manaea, a former Oakland Athletics standout, hadn’t had stellar results until the last half of the 2023 season. While he posted an 11-10 record with a 3.91 ERA across all 32 starts for Oakland in 2021, the lefty has struggled in recent seasons.
Manaea made just 10 starts in 37 games for the Giants, posting a 4.44 ERA. He did, however, put up nearly a 10 K/9 ratio, and in the second half, he was everything he needed to be to make himself attractive in free agency. While his strikeout rate went down, his WHIP went down as well and he actually pitched more innings in fewer appearances. He reduced how often he got hit and how hard he got hit.
Manaea’s decision to opt out signifies that he’s looking for a little more stability. But based on how he was used by the Giants, as a utility pitcher before settling into the rotation in the last part of the year, he may be looking for a place that can give him a more cemented role.
The Rangers, with a couple of spots in flux, can probably offer that to him – although without a steady recent history of starting, they may be able to bring some facts to the negotiating table.
Noah Syndergaard – 31, RHP
If there was ever a strong candidate for Comeback Player of the Year, it would be the former Met known as Thor. Texas native Syndergaard hasn’t been the same since Tommy John surgery robbed him of the 2020 and 2021 season. He’s lost 5 MPH on his fastball and nearly 8 MPH on his slider, which has undoubtedly made him more hittable.
Splitting the year between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cleveland Guardians, Syndergaard posted a rough 6.50 ERA over 88.2 innings. His strikeout rate dropped to nearly half of what it was during his All-Star year of 2016 and he posted a career high of 2.2 homers per 9.
Thor was just incredibly hittable all last year. The chances for a drastic turnaround of a season seem slim, but the Rangers have one of the most well-regarded pitching coaches in the game in Mike Maddux.
Syndergaard, at 31, may start to opt for a series of one-year deals until he potentially re-establishes his value. That might be an opportunity for the Rangers to capitalize if they believe that Syndergaard has something left that they can rediscover.
Lucas Giolito – 29, RHP
There’s no way that Giolito could have had it worse in 2023, right? After being one of the most talked about trading block starters going into last year and into the trade deadline, Giolito’s last season before free agency was a disaster.
The Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels completed a trade for the righty at a point in time where the Angels looked very much out of the race, robbing Giolito of going to a true contender.
What happened afterwards for Giolito was catastrophic. The righty made six starts for the Angels, putting up a painful looking 6.89 ERA in 32 ⅔ innings. Giolito ended up going to the Guardians in a weird exploited waiver loophole that Arte Moreno used to save on luxury taxes.
The Guardians were also in a distant playoff chase, but Giolito’s performance didn’t improve, as he put up a 7.04 ERA in six starts for Cleveland, and while he put up an 11.4 K/9 rate, he also surrendered a 2.0 homers per 9.
At 29, the former All-Star should fetch an impressive deal in a free agent class lacking in high-quality starting pitchers not named Shohei Ohtani. But given the downward trend of Giolito’s last three seasons, a bargain deal might be in the works for the longtime White Sox standout.
Michael Wacha – 32, RHP
The Padres decided to decline the two-year option on Wacha, which then enabled him to potentially accept a 1-year, $6.5 million contract. Wacha opted not to do that, putting him on the free agent market. Wacha, once a highly regarded pitcher with the St. Louis Cardinals, had a tumultuous time between the Mets, Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox before finally having a year more in-line with his Cardinal seasons in San Diego.
However, Wacha’s 2023 was hampered by a shoulder injury, but he still put up a 3.22 ERA in 24 starts. He recorded the most wins in his career since his All-Star season of 2015. Given his recent track record and injury history, Wacha might not command as large a price-tag or commitment as other starters on the market.
Having a pitcher like the righty as a safeguard against deGrom’s potentially injury-plagued years could be a sound idea, especially if the contract is laden with incentives based on health and performance.
The offseason has been quiet for the Rangers, as it has been for every team as they await the fallout of the Ohtani sweepstakes. Winning the World Series was great, but when the idea is to perennially return to the big dance, you have to keep looking for ways to improve.
With a rotation that lacks at least one arm, Texas needs to make sure that they take measured and calculated risks in finding the missing innings. The writing is on the wall that the team doesn’t plan to spend like they have in recent years, but that doesn’t mean they have to be out of the running on some intriguing bounce-back options.
Who do you think the Rangers should sign to bolster the rotation? Share your thoughts with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.