TYLER, Texas — The Great American Eclipse is less than 45 days away and this is significant when it comes to looking at the possible weather forecast for Monday, April 8.
We would all like to see a sunny, cloudless sky to give us the best view of this once-in-a-lifetime event across East Texas, but that could be a challenge - here's why.
Our weather pattern continues to cycle with April 8 falling within the fifth cycle of this year's weather pattern.
Every year the length of the cycle is unique and different. Scientists have been able to predict lunar cycles since 8000 B.C. In other words, this year's eclipse was predicted thousands of years ago.
This weather forecast is more challenging, but we have a tool that can help called the L-R-C or Long Rang Cycling Weather pattern theory.
As any forecast theory goes, it's not perfect but we've been able to accurately predict the arctic air mass that arrived in January, a rainy early February and recently the cold blast of air that moved in last week.
In the middle of October, we saw a storm move into the Intermountain West, traveling across the Northern Plains.
Tyler and Longview didn't pick up any rain from this storm but it rained across much of South Texas and the Gulf Coast. This storm repeated in late November as well. Once again, a large area of rain fell throughout Texas, including South and East Texas.
The third version of this storm arrived January 9. This was the strongest version of this storm bringing severe weather and heavy rain throughout Texas and much of this year's eclipse path.
Finally, the most recent version of the storm was the weakest. There was still a reflection noted in the upper level data but the storm didn't produce this time of around. So, three out of four storms produced widespread rain. Going forward, there is an 80% chance of this storm returning on or near April .
Will it be sunny and clear for eclipse? At this point, according the Long Range Cycling Pattern theory, there is a very good chance it will rain on April 7 or April 8.
If we apply climatology and a look at the weather on April 8 over the last few years, we see April 8 has been primarily dry, but just one day before April 7, it has rained at least a trace at Tyler 7 out of the last 10 years.
But could the eclipse itself have an impact on cloud cover, if we have cloud cover on the April 8? During the 2017 total solar eclipse, researchers at North Carolina State University noted a 97% decrease in the sun's energy at totality.
Solar radiation began dropping as much as an hour and a half before totality. The loss of solar radiation was followed by clearing of the sky over North Carolina. In the path of totality, northeast of Kansas City, Missouri, a mostly cloudy sky became almost clear as totality approached, evidence that the loss of solar radiation and heating led to cooling and stabilization of the atmosphere which allowed for incredible views of the eclipse.
So, if we are battling a cloudy sky, April 8, the loss of the sun's energy could be to our benefit.
At this point, don't cancel any plans. As I pointed out earlier in the blog, these similar storms have passed with different results - and timing is everything.
April 7 could be stormy followed by a fantastic weather day on April 8. The Long Range Cycling Pattern gives a great picture view of the weather for that week.
We will be able to pin down the hour to hour details the closer we get to the Great American Eclipse. The countdown is on!
