TYLER, Texas — A recent poll conducted by the University of Texas at Tyler shows East Texas voters' opinions ahead of the 2024 presidential debate.
A poll surveying 2,075 Texans, 1,144 of which are registered voters, found former President Donald Trump holds an 8% lead with registered Texas voters when compared to other candidates on the ballot, according to the UT Tyler Center for Opinion Research. The share of the electorate that supports Trump and President Joe Biden is statistically the same as UT Tyler's previous poll before the March primaries, according to Dr. Ken Wink, a professor and poll director for UT Tyler.
“If the debate affects the race, it could come from the absence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Support for the Kennedy/Shanahan Campaign in Texas has lagged national trends, despite acute attention surrounding the selected running mate, Nicole Shanahan, and not securing the nomination of the Libertarian Party,” Wink said in a press release. “Absence from this debate means Kennedy will not be able to present himself as a clear alternative to the major party nominees on the issues that matter to voters.”
Wink added that voter perceptions of Biden's and Trump's ability to be the commander-in-chief appear to be shaped by partisanship. 80% of voters who prefer the Democratic Party are confident in Biden's ability to lead the U.S military, with only 14% of Democratic voters holding confidence in Trump. On the other end of the aisle, 85% of Republicans reported confidence in Trump's ability to command the U.S military, with only 12% of those same voters trusting Biden's ability.
“Changing the perception of a candidate’s leadership on the world stage may be a key to winning support from pure independents, many of whom shared they were not confident at all in President Biden (38%) or former President Trump (43%) to lead the U.S. military,” Wink said.
Wink added that with so many issues on the agenda for the upcoming presidential debate, it is currently unclear how Trump's felony conviction in New York in May has shifted Texans' voting stances in November.
“Forty-five percent of likely voters said they were less likely to support Trump due to the conviction, but 54% said they were just as likely, at 30%, or more likely, at 24%, to support Trump. These numbers are very similar to what we found in our poll of registered voters in February, before the trial verdict,” Wink said.
The poll also showed that the top issue among 38% of registered voters is securing the southern border. Wink said that 52% of registered voters in Texas believe a border wall is necessary, while 59% of voters support Biden's recent executive order that limits the amount of asylum claims that are processed. That survey also showed that more Texans are satisfied with how Gov. Greg Abbott is handling immigration is handling immigration, at 53%, than with Biden on the same issue at 30%.
“Debating these issues at the forefront of a campaign can also shape public support for issues that are somewhat similar like Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA," Wink said. "Ten years after President Obama’s executive order, support among Texans was the lowest since we started polling about the issue, at 41%."
Aside from the southern border, the economy remains another issue for voters. The poll shows 49% of respondents reported that higher prices caused by inflation have had a major impact on their household's finances, and that 59% of Texans disapprove of how Biden is handling the national economy, with 53% of voters polled favoring Abbott's approach to the Texas economy.
“In thinking about the national economy, 24% of Texas respondents think the economy has gotten somewhat worse, while 35% say it has gotten much worse, so these views about the economy are hurting President Biden with Texas voters,” Wink said.
One more issue pressing Texas voters is access to abortion. Candidates will discuss access to the abortion pill and a decision by the Texas Supreme Court to uphold the state's abortion ban. The poll shows 50% of survey respondents support a federal law protecting abortion access in each state, whereas 19% favor a ban across the country. The remaining 31% of respondents favor the status quo, allowing each state to set its own abortion policies.
The first presidential debate for the 2024 election will take place Thursday, June 27 at 8 p.m. on CNN.