TYLER, Texas — The numbers are getting worse every day, but the end may be in sight.
New projections from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation show that fewer Americans may die of COVID-19 than had been previously predicted.
During a White House press briefing on March 31, Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House’s coronavirus response coordinator, showed modeling that suggest the number of Americans who would die during this coronavirus pandemic would fall between 100,000 and 240,000.
“We really believe and hope every day that we can do a lot better than that,” Dr, Birx said, “because that's not assuming 100% of every American does everything that they're supposed to be doing, but I think that's possible."
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease at the National Institutes of Health, added that, “as sobering a number as that is, we should be prepared for it.”
Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci both mentioned that measures such as social distancing, hand-washing, and sanitizing of surfaces would reduce those numbers.
So far, it looks like Americans are doing their part.
Updated models show from IMHE show that the projected number of deaths across the country is now 81,766, with a maximum possible figure of 136,401. The projected number is still twice as high as the number of people who die during a typical flu season, but an improvement from a week before.
The peak day for hospitalizations nationwide is expected to be April 15, with the highest number of deaths occurring April 16. After that, incidences slow down until the epidemic finally ends around the beginning of July.
In Texas, the peak for hospitalizations is expected to be April 19 and the greatest number of deaths are expected to be recorded on April 20. The coronavirus appeared in several other states before it reached Texas, so logic dictates that the worst day would also be slightly later than average.
The model projects that 2,025 Texans will die of the virus when all is said and done, and that the pandemic should end in the state by mid-June. As of April 7, the State of Texas reported that 154 people had died due to COVID-19.
The model also suggests that Texas as a state has enough hospital space for all the COVID-19 patients, but that might not be true in every city. Some areas may have excess capacity while others struggle to accommodate everyone with severe symptoms.
The City of Dallas has prepared the Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center to become a makeshift hospital, and the City of Houston plans to use NRG Stadium for the same purpose. Leaders in East Texas have thus far said no additional capacity will be required
To understand how much stay-at-home orders have helped reduce the spread and impact of coronavirus, researchers with the Kinder Institute at Rice University compared current models with those from earlier in the pandemic. They estimated that, in Houston alone, those strict measures have saved 4,533 lives and kept 48,812 people out of the hospital. If those measures continue until May 7, 45 days after they were enacted, 19,452 lives would be saved and 179,381 fewer people would be hospitalized than if no action had been taken.