TYLER, Texas — Renown economist Dr. Ray Perryman presented good news to business leaders in the Tyler area Thursday afternoon: all jobs lost during the pandemic have returned and growth is on the horizon.
Perryman, president and CEO of economic research and analysis firm Perryman Group, presented his 38th annual Economic Forecast at the Green Acres Crosswalk Center in Tyler to just under 600 attendees Thursday.
He noted there are exciting things happening in the Tyler and Smith County, such as the UT System medical school coming to Tyler and growth in the biomedical field.
Between 2021 and 2026, industries in the Tyler area are expected to grow at annual pace of 3.65%, which would lead to almost $2 billion in economic gain over the next five years. Employment is expected to increase by 2.17% annually to gain 12,400 jobs by 2026, according to Perryman's report.
Both of these expected growth rates are higher than readings for the nation.
"We have some challenges to work through. Obviously, we’re trying to get the virus under control. We have some supply chain issues," Perryman said. "As far as the output for East Texas, we’re forecasting growth in the Tyler area."
He said the diversity of Tyler's industries helped the economy greatly compared to other areas, such as cities heavily dependent on tourism.
“For example, if East Texas was as dependent on oil as it was 30 years ago, we would have gotten hit much harder," Perryman said.
In general, Perryman said most industries and Tyler as a whole are looking very strong, while adding the pandemic has affected the economy over the past almost two years.
"We went down hard in March and April of 2020. Since then, we’ve been coming back, but how fast we’ve come back has fluctuated with the pandemic," he said. "As the pandemic has ebbed and flowed, the economy has ebbed and flowed. We’re doing the things we have to do to manage something like this. I don’t think it ever goes away, but we seem to be doing a better job of managing it going forward."
Because of the pandemic and stimulus funding, there has been a fair amount of inflation but nothing like it was 30 years ago, Perryman said.
Perryman said there is a big need for immigration, especially due to a workforce shortage and declining birth rates. About 25% of doctors and 22% of other medical professionals were not born in U.S.
"We need them (immigrants) across the spectrum in all types of jobs," he said, adding that reform from Washington is needed but doubtful during an election year. "We have long-term workforce shortage and you have to have bodies to overcome that."
Perryman added the pandemic hit small businesses really hard.
As a small business owner himself, Tyler Mayor Don Warren said his advice when times get hard is to not give up and build relationships with fellow business owners.
Warren said Perryman's report has always been a measuring stick on how Tyler has done in the previous year. He was most interested in the supply chain issues and car manufacturing in the U.S.
"I’ve come to this event for seven or eight years, and every year the local economy gets good grades and I’m very proud of it," Warren said.
Warren also noted the rise in sales tax revenue month after month and that shows people have confidence in the local economy.
